Moonee Valley City Council's Kindergarten Strategy Enhancement: A Case Study

Moonee Valley City Council's Kindergarten Strategy Enhancement

Background.  The Victorian Government has committed to expanding kindergarten programs across the state, with a set of reforms involving funding and delivery hours from 2023 to 2032. In brief, the reforms are as follows:

‍

1. 2023 Onwards: Both three and four-year-old kindergarten will be fully government-funded, making it free for families.
2. By 2029: Three-year-old kindergarten will increase to 15 hours per week, an increase from the current 5 hours. Some services may start this as early as 2022.
3. By 2032: Four-year-old kindergarten will offer 30 hours per week, up from the current 15 hours, a concept referred to as "Pre-Prep."

Impact on Student Capacity: These changes will affect the number of students that can be accommodated per licensed place, requiring adjustments in provisions for the expanded hours in 2029 and 2032.

‍

To better understand the impact of these significant reforms, we are focusing on Moonee Valley City Council to analyse options as to how it could adapt and evolve with these changes over the next decade. But first, there are some technical-looking maps involved, so it's important to understand how to comprehend them.

‍

‍

How Moonee Valley City Council (MVCC) Implemented Policy Changes to Protect Resident Interests - A Case Study

Introduction.  Moonee Valley City Council engaged propella.ai to analyse and improve their kindergarten strategy in response to increases in kindergarten hours in Victoria over the next decade. The project aimed to determine whether MVCC's current kindergarten infrastructure could meet the future needs of the municipality's children, ensuring equitable access to quality early education.

The following are the modelling scenarios for kindergarten provision that the Moonee Valley City Council (MVCC) wanted to analyse. The focus is on the spatial analysis of current kindergarten provision within 20-minute walkable catchments, targeting combined age cohorts of 3 and 4-year-olds, for the years:

1. 2023: Based on current policy settings and current population data (2023).
2. 2029: Assumes 15 hours of kindergarten for both 3 and 4-year-olds at all services (as per the new policy) and forecasted 3 and 4 year old population for 2029.
3. 2032: Assumes 15 hours of kindergarten for 3-year-olds and 30 hours for 4-year-olds at all services (as per the new policy) and forecasted 3 and 4 year old population for 2032.

Project Scope and Objectives.  With kindergarten hours set to increase, MVCC needed a precise assessment of current and future capacity to determine the sufficiency and geographic distribution of kindergartens. Our analysis focused on:

• Evaluating current kindergarten capacity.
• Projecting future demand.
• Identifying geographic areas requiring strategic investments.

Scenario Analysis and Results – Scenarios based on Existing Capacity

Scenario 1 (2023)

Projection: This baseline scenario assumes no changes in current kindergarten provisions.

Findings: There was a theoretical oversupply of 67% of kindergarten places compared to the demand from 3 and 4-year-olds. All children were successfully allocated places, partly due to the inclusion of non-participating kindergartens (note that these are excluded from the spatial maps hence the few red dots but still included in the calculation outputs – bracketed values represent original values prior to non-participating kindergarten assignments).[Vi1] 

Challenges: Although the overall capacity was sufficient, certain regions such as Niddrie faced accessibility issues, with children unable to reach a kindergarten within a 20-minute walk.

‍

‍
Scenario 2 (2029) - Increased Hours for 3-Year-Olds

Projection: This scenario accounts for the legislative changes requiring 3-year-olds to receive 15 hours of kindergarten per week and population increase in 3yo and 4yo.

Findings: With a 36% rise in demand for kindergarten places by 2029, 9% of children could not access a kindergarten within a 20-minute walk from their homes despite an overall oversupply. Additional capacity assignments addressed some of these issues, but spatial optimisations were still necessary.

Capacity: An oversupply of 5,168 capacity hours (24.0% more) was noted, highlighting the need to increase capacities in central and southeast regions due to observed constraints in densely populated areas.

‍

‍

Scenario 3 (2032) - Increased Hours for 4-Year-Olds

Projection: This scenario incorporates the policy change increasing 4-year-old kindergarten hours to 30 per week by 2032 and slight population increase in 3yo and 4yo.

Findings: Kindergarten demand was projected to increase by 118% compared to 2023. In this scenario, 28% of children lacked access to a local kindergarten with sufficient capacity, necessitating the acquisition of new sites or expansion of existing facilities.

Capacity: There was an undersupply of 7,867 capacity hours (22.7% less), indicating the pressing need to construct new kindergartens or expand current ones to meet this demand.

‍

Conclusion This analysis outlined the critical need for MVCC to plan proactively to address the future demand for kindergarten services. By expanding existing facilities and considering new constructions, MVCC can ensure that all children have access to quality kindergarten education within an acceptable distance from their homes.

Support and Future Steps

• Capacity Expansion: Focus on increasing capacities in central and southeast areas.
• New Constructions: Consider building additional kindergartens in undersupplied regions.
• Ongoing Assessment: Regularly update capacity and demand projections to align with changing demographics and legislative requirements.

This case study highlights the importance of data-driven decision-making in local government planning, ensuring that the needs of the community are met efficiently and effectively.

Scenario Analysis and Results – Scenarios Based on Updated (Increased) Capacity

‍

Having established a clear understanding of the current kindergarten provision landscape and identified the key accessibility challenges faced by MVCC, it is crucial to explore how future changes will shape the supply and demand for kindergarten hours as the planned reforms are implemented. The following analysis projects these dynamics at various points in the coming decade, considering the progressive increase in funded kindergarten hours by MVCC. This projection aims to illustrate the potential impacts of these changes and guide strategic planning to ensure all children have access to quality early education in the future.

Scenario 4 (2029) - Increased Hours for 3-Year-Olds

Projection: This scenario projects supply and demand dynamics, focusing on the impact of increasing funded kindergarten hours.

Findings: The total kindergarten capacity was found to be 37,680 hours, with a used capacity of 20,622 hours. There is a surplus of 16,080 hours and a total demand of 21,600 hours.

Capacity: The central and southeastern parts of the municipality were identified as critical hotspots needing additional kindergarten services. Specific areas, particularly Ascot and Coronation, need targeted expansion plans to bridge identified gaps and optimize utilization of excess capacity.

‍

Scenario 5 (2032) - Increased Hours for 4-Year-Olds

Projection: This scenario projects supply and demand dynamics for 2032, focusing on the impact of increasing kindergarten hours.

Findings: The total kindergarten capacity was found to be 37,680 hours, with a used capacity of 28,324 hours. There is a surplus of 3,045 hours and a total demand of 34,635 hours.

Capacity: The central and southeastern parts of the municipality were identified as critical hotspots needing additional kindergarten services. Specific areas, particularly Ascot and Coronation, need targeted expansion plans to bridge identified gaps and optimize utilization of excess capacity.

Key Findings 

Based on the detailed analysis of Scenario 5 (Current Provision 2032: 15 hours for 3YO and 30 hours for 4YO), the following key findings emerged:

‍

1. Overall Capacity and Demand:

Total Capacity: The overarching data indicates Moonee Valley has a total kindergarten capacity of 37,680 hours.some text

• Used Capacity: Participating Kindergartens utilised 26,189 hours, while Non-participating Kindergartens accounted for 2,135 hours, totalling 28,324 used capacity hours.
• Unused Capacity: There are 9,356 unused capacity hours available exclusively in Participating Kindergartens.

Surplus: An overall surplus of 3,045 capacity hours (8.8% more than the projected need).

Future Demand:

• 3-Year-Olds: The analysis projected a demand for 7,875[Vi2]  capacity hours, considering 401 children have been assigned, 92 children lacked capacity, and 32 had no access to a walkable facility.
• 4-Year-Olds: The projected demand for 26,760[Vi3]  capacity hours reflects 743 assigned children, 89 lacking capacity, and 60 without a walkable facility.
• Total Demand: Combining both age groups, the total projected demand equals 34,635 capacity hours.‍

‍

2. Geographic Discrepancies:

• Gap Analysis: While the overall capacity surpasses demand, the analysis illuminated specific regions and demographics where gaps persisted—most notably areas where children lacked access to a kindergarten within a 20-minute walk, as indicated by red and black dots on the map.
• Hotspot Areas: Central and southeastern parts of the municipality were identified as critical hotspots needing additional kindergarten services.

‍

Strategic Insights and Recommendations

The analysis clearly highlighted several key areas and provided actionable insights for the Moonee Valley City Council:

‍

Identify Gaps and Hotspots:

• Gap Analysis: Despite the 8.8% surplus, specific areas were still under-served, with children lacking access to nearby kindergartens.
• Hotspot Areas: Emphasised central and southeast regions, particularly Ascot and Coronation, as priority areas for intervention.

Targeted Expansion Plans:

• Central and Southeast Focus: Recommended prioritising expansion in these high-demand areas to bridge the identified gaps.
• New Constructions: Suggested constructing new kindergartens in strategic locations to enhance accessibility and meet the increasing demand efficiently.

Optimised Utilisation:

• Better Utilisation: Strategies to optimise the utilisation of the available capacity, ensuring the excess capacity is allocated efficiently to meet the needs of unserved or underserved areas.
• Equitable Access: Suggested measures to ensure equitable access across the municipality, addressing discrepancies and ensuring every child has a fair opportunity to attend kindergarten within proximity to their home.

Impact and Benefits

The strategic recommendations derived from our detailed analysis have significantly benefited Moonee Valley City Council by providing a clear, data-driven path forward. Specifically:

Enhanced Planning and Decision-Making:

• Informed Decisions: MVCC can now make informed decisions regarding where to expand or build new kindergartens, backed by accurate demographic and demand data.
• Resource Allocation: Optimised resource allocation ensures investments are directed to areas of highest need, achieving maximum impact.

Improved Access and Equity:

• Access for All: Focusing on gaps in service ensures all children have access to quality kindergarten education within a reasonable distance from their homes.
• Equity Focused: The strategy promotes equity, ensuring no child is left behind due to geographic disparities.

Future-Proofing Services:

• Sustainable Growth: The council is prepared for future growth and can adapt dynamically as the population and demand for kindergarten services evolve.
• Continuous Improvement: Ongoing assessment and optimisation strategies ensure that the council can continuously improve and refine their kindergarten services to meet community needs effectively.

Conclusion Through detailed capacity and demand analysis, along with strategic recommendations, Moonee Valley City Council is now well-equipped to address current and future kindergarten needs. This project has enabled the Mooney Valley City Council to uncover new insights about their municipality and has effectively transformed the complex issue of kindergarten provisioning into a more digestible format. The project's insights not only help in immediate planning and resource allocation but also build a framework for ongoing assessment and improvement, ensuring sustainable and equitable kindergarten access for all children in the municipality.

This case study exemplifies our firm's commitment to leveraging data and analytics to deliver impactful solutions tailored to our clients' unique challenges and objectives.

If you'd like to understand the detail in these images from this case study, please get in contact and we can email these to you.

To understand how well your municipality is prepared for the changes in demand following the increase in kindergarten hours over the coming years, and how to best address any shortcomings, get in touch today. We can help ensure that your investment is allocated exactly where it needs to be for the maximum benefit of your community.